Blind Backtester

Walk-forward analysis with blind out-of-sample testing. Every strategy is tested on data it has never seen — preventing overfitting bias. The agent autonomously backtests its own strategy and the top evolved swarm agents every 6 hours.

How Blind Testing Works

Walk-Forward Windows

History is split into rolling windows: 7 days for training, 2 days for blind testing. The strategy never sees the test data. We slide forward and repeat 11+ times.

Monte Carlo Validation

Trade order is randomly shuffled 1,000 times. The p-value tells you the probability the result is due to luck — below 0.05 means statistically significant edge.

Overfit Detection

We compare in-sample vs out-of-sample returns. An overfit ratio near 1.0 means the strategy generalizes well. Near 0 means it only works on data it was trained on.

StrategySourceReturnAnnual.Win %SharpeMax DDOverfitp-valueTradesTested
Resonance v0 BESTevolved+136.42%1659.78%66.7%68.8826.14%149.9120.905302026-03-25
Phase Shift v0 evolved+126.98%1544.92%59.4%36.8344.33%3.8050.411322026-03-26
Phase Shift v0 evolved+108.67%1322.15%59.3%36.3828.08%4.270.812272026-03-25
Resonance v0 evolved+104.94%1276.77%58.6%59.0513.17%25.5330.566292026-03-25
Phase Shift v0 evolved+104.35%1269.59%57.1%41.4135.85%3.4520.215282026-03-25
Phase Shift v0 evolved+100.73%1225.55%60%39.1126.8%5.3870.455252026-03-25
Phase Shift v0 evolved+97.05%1180.77%63%41.7321.82%3.4270.995272026-03-25
Phase Shift v0 evolved+90.95%1106.56%35.7%31.5760.01%14.3450.758282026-03-26
Phase Shift v0 evolved+83.34%1013.97%53.8%32.9240.48%2.4150.693262026-03-26
Phase Shift v0 evolved+81.51%991.7%61.5%39.2222.5%2.7320.916262026-03-25
Phase Shift v0 evolved+80.62%980.88%53.6%30.4538.87%2.5880.364282026-03-26
Resonance v0 evolved+79.71%969.8%66.7%67.1916.55%20.9210.863212026-03-25
Phase Shift v0 evolved+66.76%812.25%46.2%25.6135.73%2.280.848262026-03-26
Resonance v0 evolved+61.75%751.29%71.4%60.4817.47%23.6590.343212026-03-25
Phase Shift v0 evolved+60.55%736.69%54.2%30.0831.43%1.860.925242026-03-26
Phase Shift v0 evolved+44.39%540.08%46.2%20.5331.22%2.4060.452262026-03-26
Resonance v0 evolved+21.58%262.56%65%23.9417.56%4.3770.177202026-03-25
Phase Shift v0 evolved+19.43%236.4%38.1%8.9450.58%0.5140.369212026-03-25
Eigenstate Alpha learned+14.36%174.71%56%4.9371.35%0.0580.542252026-03-26
Phase Shift v0 evolved+12.96%157.68%40%6.841.99%0.3410.8202026-03-25
Convergence v0 evolved+4.12%50.13%39.5%1.0377.87%0.0310.902432026-03-25
Resonance v0 evolved0%0%0%00%0102026-03-25
Convergence v0 evolved0%0%0%00%0102026-03-25
Resonance v0 evolved0%0%0%00%0102026-03-25
Convergence v0 evolved0%0%0%00%0102026-03-25
Resonance v0 evolved0%0%0%00%0102026-03-25
Convergence v0 evolved0%0%0%00%0102026-03-25
Resonance v0 evolved0%0%0%00%0102026-03-25
Convergence v0 evolved0%0%0%00%0102026-03-25
Resonance v0 evolved0%0%0%00%0102026-03-25
Convergence v0 evolved0%0%0%00%0102026-03-25
Resonance v0 evolved0%0%0%00%0102026-03-25
Convergence v0 evolved0%0%0%00%0102026-03-26
Resonance v0 evolved0%0%0%00%0102026-03-26
Convergence v0 evolved0%0%0%00%0102026-03-26
Resonance v0 evolved0%0%0%00%0102026-03-26
Convergence v0 evolved0%0%0%00%0102026-03-26
Resonance v0 evolved0%0%0%00%0102026-03-26
Convergence v0 evolved0%0%0%00%0102026-03-26
Resonance v0 evolved0%0%0%00%0102026-03-26
Convergence v0 evolved0%0%0%00%0102026-03-26
Resonance v0 evolved0%0%0%00%0102026-03-26
Convergence v0 evolved0%0%0%00%0102026-03-26
Resonance v0 evolved0%0%0%00%0102026-03-26
Convergence v0 evolved0%0%0%00%0102026-03-26
Resonance v0 evolved0%0%0%00%0102026-03-26
Convergence v1 evolved0%0%0%00%0102026-03-26
Resonance v1 evolved0%0%0%00%0102026-03-26
Phase Shift v1 evolved0%0%0%00%0102026-03-26
Convergence v1 evolved0%0%0%00%0102026-03-26

Overfit ratio: Out-of-sample / in-sample return. 1.0 = perfect generalization. Below 0.2 = likely overfit.

p-value: Monte Carlo statistical significance. Below 0.05 = real edge (not random chance).

Source: "learned" = main agent's self-tuned weights. "evolved" = discovered by the Darwinian swarm.